Niger Crisis: Decision Time for ECOWAS and Its Imperialist
Backers as Deadline Nears
Protesters
gesture during a demonstration on independence day in
Niamey on August 3, 2023
AFP
Thousands
turned out for a rally in support of the coup on Thursday
By
Yusuf Akinpelu
BBC
News, Lagos
As
the seven-day ultimatum given by West African leaders for the military in Niger
to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum draws to a
close, both sides have crucial decisions to make.
Last
Sunday evening, the regional bloc Ecowas, headed by President Bola Tinubu of neighbouring Nigeria, said the junta had a week to restore
constitutional order or face the possible use of force.
Sanctions
on the coup leaders have already been imposed and electricity supplies from
Nigeria have been cut, along with borders, meaning goods are no longer arriving
and the land-locked country has lost access to ports.
But
as the political, diplomatic and military tensions
rise, what could happen as the deadline passes?
1)
Deadline is extended
One
option is for the Ecowas leaders to extend the deadline.
This
has the danger of being seen as a climbdown, but the heads of state could save
face by saying that diplomatic efforts have made progress and they want to give
them more time.
The
problem at the moment is that Ecowas mediation efforts
have not borne fruit. A delegation sent to Niger on Thursday returned within a
few hours with apparently little to show for it.
Meanwhile,
the junta stepped up its rhetoric against both the West and Ecowas. It
announced that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the US and France, and said it was cancelling the military
agreements with France which allows the former colonial power to base some
1,500 soldiers there.
And
President Bazoum, who is being held by the military,
used stark language in an article in the Washington Post. He described himself
as a "hostage" and called on the US and the entire international
community to help restore constitutional order.
On
Friday, the US said it will pause some of its aid to Niger's government,
but will continue to provide humanitarian and food assistance.
2)
They agree on a timetable for a transition
To
try and cool things down and find middle ground, the junta and Ecowas could
agree on a timetable for a return to democratic rule.
This
could include the release of President Bazoum, as
well as other political detainees, in order to keep
talks going and possibly buy more time. This has been a key demand of those who
have condemned the coup in Africa and elsewhere.
The
West African bloc has already approved democratic transitions in Niger's neighbours in the Sahel region, Mali
and Burkina Faso, which were both taken over by the military in recent years.
But
the negotiations were fraught with problems, with deadlines for elections
continually pushed back and it is still not guaranteed that the handovers of power will actually happen.
Sudan,
which created a mixed civilian-military government in 2019 that was supposed to
pave the way to democracy after a coup there, provides another model. But the
collapse of that country into a bitter conflict between rival military leaders
offers a cautionary tale.
3)
Military intervention
The
West African leaders did not say that force would definitely
be used if President Bazoum was not reinstated
but left it open as a possibility.
Nigerian
officials have described it as a "last resort". President Tinubu said
there could be a military intervention "to enforce compliance of the
military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant".
Ecowas
has used military force to restore constitutional order in the past, for
example in The Gambia in 2017 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after
losing an election.
But
the calculation about whether to go ahead this time would be far more
difficult.
Firstly,
Niger is geographically the largest country in West Africa, while The Gambia is
a tiny sliver of land surrounded by Senegal and the Atlantic Ocean, so sending
troops in would be a whole different prospect.
Secondly,
regional power Nigeria, which is leading the charge to restore President Bazoum, is facing a host of security challenges at home, so
sending a significant portion of the army to Niger would be something of a
gamble.
Thirdly,
both Mali and Burkina Faso have said that military intervention in Niger would
be seen as a "declaration of war" and they
would go to defend their fellow coup leaders.
So it risks snowballing
into a full-scale regional war, especially if the Niger population resists
foreign intervention. Although it is impossible to know how they would react.
Nigeria
and Niger share many historical and ethnic ties, with people on both sides speaking
the same language so this could make some Nigerian troops reluctant to fight if
it came to that.
Countries
like Algeria, Niger's neighbour to the north, China
and Russia have asked for restraint and the continued use of dialogue to douse
tension.
However,
after a three-day meeting in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs say they have drawn up a detailed plan for
military intervention for the regional leaders to consider.
Nigeria,
Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin have all said they are
willing to send troops into Niger if Ecowas decided to do so.
Nigeria
alone has about 135,000 active troops, according to the Global Fire Power
index, while Niger has about 10,000 but that certainly doesn't mean an invasion
would be easy.
A
peaceful solution is no doubt preferable for all sides
but Ecowas is keen to show its resolve as it has failed to prevent a spate of
coups in the region in the last three years.